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Post by Telso on Mar 28, 2020 9:43:53 GMT 10
^Welp Italy just registered their biggest death toll since the beginning of the pandemic with a whopping 1000 deaths in 24 hours. And the United States have now over 100 000 cases. 
kev2000sfan likes this
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2020 14:03:56 GMT 10
I don't want to jinks it, but Italy's rate of infection and deaths seems to be slowing down. Not in terms of total cases, but if you look at the percentages, it's slowing down. They shut Lombardy down on the 9th I believe, and it's almost roughly 14 days of incubation later now. We could probably start to see them "flatten the curve" over the next couple of days. That still represents some 600+ deaths and 5000+ new cases every day. The percentage might get smaller but that's relative to their already enormous amounts, so it's a false equivalent. I don't usually like to play the hopeless but let's face it, these numbers are still catastrophic. Not implying quarantine is bad though, without it these numbers would have been even worse. That's *linear* growth. A disease is supposed to spread exponentially. I don't know how much Calculus you know, but even with Italy record death toll, this is an encouraging development. The numbers might be getting bigger, but if you take the derivative of the curve, it would be 0, which is to say the number of new infections everyday is flat. And if you take the second derivative (which is the number to follow), you would get a negative slope, which means the rate the disease is spreading is slowing down. The derivative and second derivative are important, because they tell you what the FUTURE numbers are going to look like. The curve is flattening, so to speak. Sorry if that didn't make sense. I have a BSc in Physics, so the math behind this pandemic is super interesting to me.  longaotian can back me up on this, he's in engineering lol (although the running joke in the Physics department was that engineers approximate pi to equal to 3)
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Post by sman12 on Mar 29, 2020 4:44:56 GMT 10
That still represents some 600+ deaths and 5000+ new cases every day. The percentage might get smaller but that's relative to their already enormous amounts, so it's a false equivalent. I don't usually like to play the hopeless but let's face it, these numbers are still catastrophic. Not implying quarantine is bad though, without it these numbers would have been even worse. That's *linear* growth. A disease is supposed to spread exponentially. I don't know how much Calculus you know, but even with Italy record death toll, this is an encouraging development. The numbers might be getting bigger, but if you take the derivative of the curve, it would be 0, which is to say the number of new infections everyday is flat. And if you take the second derivative (which is the number to follow), you would get a negative slope, which means the rate the disease is spreading is slowing down. The derivative and second derivative are important, because they tell you what the FUTURE numbers are going to look like. The curve is flattening, so to speak. Sorry if that didn't make sense. I have a BSc in Physics, so the math behind this pandemic is super interesting to me. longaotian can back me up on this, he's in engineering lol (although the running joke in the Physics department was that engineers approximate pi to equal to 3) It seems like Italy is fluctuating a bit with the cases, but they still maintain very grim increases. Just yesterday, they reported over 919 deaths and today, they have a total of 10,023 deaths and over 92,000+ cases, according to Worldometer.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2020 4:55:47 GMT 10
That's *linear* growth. A disease is supposed to spread exponentially. I don't know how much Calculus you know, but even with Italy record death toll, this is an encouraging development. The numbers might be getting bigger, but if you take the derivative of the curve, it would be 0, which is to say the number of new infections everyday is flat. And if you take the second derivative (which is the number to follow), you would get a negative slope, which means the rate the disease is spreading is slowing down. The derivative and second derivative are important, because they tell you what the FUTURE numbers are going to look like. The curve is flattening, so to speak. Sorry if that didn't make sense. I have a BSc in Physics, so the math behind this pandemic is super interesting to me. longaotian can back me up on this, he's in engineering lol (although the running joke in the Physics department was that engineers approximate pi to equal to 3) It seems like Italy is fluctuating a bit with the cases, but they still maintain very grim increases. Just yesterday, they reported over 919 deaths and today, they have a total of 10,023 deaths and over 92,000+ cases, according to Worldometer. Not to sound morbid, but in the mathematical modelling of this disease, dying is functionally the same thing as recovering: it means there are fewer infected people/active cases and so less people spreading the disease and less burden on the healthcare system  The number of deaths will always lag the number of new cases. The number to watch for is new cases.
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Post by sman12 on Mar 29, 2020 5:08:37 GMT 10
It seems like Italy is fluctuating a bit with the cases, but they still maintain very grim increases. Just yesterday, they reported over 919 deaths and today, they have a total of 10,023 deaths and over 92,000+ cases, according to Worldometer. , but in the mathematical modelling of this disease, dying is functionally the same thing as recovering: it means there are fewer infected people/active cases and so less people spreading the disease and less burden on the healthcare system The number of deaths will always lag the number of new cases. The number to watch for is new cases. Yeah, that's very bleak and morbid. But what's also true is that are over 139,000 recoveries from this virus (not from dead people), so that's positive.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2020 15:16:51 GMT 10
It looks like America has its own version of the Shincheonji death cult that spread the virus in South Korea  This gathering happened on Sunday March 29th 2020 in FLORIDA, one of the biggest virus hot spots. The congregation is practically elbow to elbow. I randomly skipped over to 1:53:43 and I got a real peep into crazy town Also... www.news4jax.com/news/local/2020/03/28/after-thousands-flock-to-st-johns-county-beaches-officials-decide-to-shut-them-down/ Hoo boy. Apparently, the part of the beach with no people is Miami, which shut down its beach. However, St. John's, a neighbouring county, kept its beaches open as you can see.
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Post by dount2005 on Mar 31, 2020 8:48:17 GMT 10
Virginia just extended stay-at-home order until June tenth. June tenth. June tenth. JUNE FUCKING TENTH! 
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Post by Cassie on Mar 31, 2020 9:21:28 GMT 10
Virginia just extended stay-at-home order until June tenth. June tenth. June tenth. JUNE FUCKING TENTH! And they may extend it even longer. Even by then we can't be sure that the coronavirus won't alter daily life. It really sucks.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 11:00:36 GMT 10
My cousin in Texas tested positive for coronavirus.  She is 22 years old with no underlying health problems, so I hope she'll be okay. She was a waitress at a coffeeshop, I can't even imagine how many surfaces she got her hands on.
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Post by SharksFan99 on Mar 31, 2020 16:39:28 GMT 10
My cousin in Texas tested positive for coronavirus. She is 22 years old with no underlying health problems, so I hope she'll be okay. She was a waitress at a coffeeshop, I can't even imagine how many surfaces she got her hands on. I'm sorry to hear that.  There has been a spike in young people becoming infected with the virus in the US unfortunately, but from what i'm aware, the biggest fatality rates are still among the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions. If your cousin has no underlying health problems she should be okay. How has your aunt been by the way? I remember you saying that you were worried for her health since she went to the same hospital that a doctor (who had been diagnosed) had been working in?
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Post by SharksFan99 on Mar 31, 2020 20:35:12 GMT 10
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Post by Telso on Mar 31, 2020 21:05:03 GMT 10
Belgium just registered the death of a 12 year old girl due to the virus, which makes her the youngest case in Europe. This is extremely sad. Sending much support to the family
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Post by Alexander Edoh on Mar 31, 2020 22:46:58 GMT 10
The coronavirus lockdown will last throughout easter. At least I can stay at home doing what I want to do (sitting down watching catchup TV).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2020 10:11:14 GMT 10
My cousin in Texas tested positive for coronavirus. She is 22 years old with no underlying health problems, so I hope she'll be okay. She was a waitress at a coffeeshop, I can't even imagine how many surfaces she got her hands on. I'm sorry to hear that. There has been a spike in young people becoming infected with the virus in the US unfortunately, but from what i'm aware, the biggest fatality rates are still among the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions. If your cousin has no underlying health problems she should be okay. How has your aunt been by the way? I remember you saying that you were worried for her health since she went to the same hospital that a doctor (who had been diagnosed) had been working in? My aunt's alright thankfully. I think my cousin might have recovered too.
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Post by Telso on Apr 1, 2020 21:54:02 GMT 10
Practically every nation on earth is now officially hit by the virus, even small island nations like the Turks and Caicos islands I didn't think they would ever get cases are getting it. The few exceptions are nations that don't communicate their situation like North Korea, Yemen and Turkmenistan because of course they won't.  Spooky. Time to move to Antarctica I'd say
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There has been a spike in young people becoming infected with the virus in the US unfortunately, but from what i'm aware, the biggest fatality rates are still among the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions. If your cousin has no underlying health problems she should be okay. 
