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Post by John Titor on Mar 15, 2020 2:18:28 GMT 10
www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/11/recession-heres-how-coronavirus-crises-different-2008/5012228002/
A plunging stock market. The widening shadow of recession. Fed interest rate cuts and government stimulus.
It's beginning to feel a lot like 2008 again. And not in a good way.
For many Americans, the stomach-churning market drops and growing recession talk of the past few weeks – triggered by the global spread of the coronavirus – are reviving memories of the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession.
Take a breath. While the toll the infection ultimately takes on the nation isn’t clear, the economic upheaval caused by the outbreak will likely not be nearly as damaging or long-lasting as the historic downturn of 2007-09.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 3:28:43 GMT 10
To that last paragraph, it’s honestly too soon to know how damaging or long-lasting this will be. For the U.S. at least, using all of the Fed’s levers and passing tax cuts to boost the economy in 2017-2019 doesn’t leave us with many policy reliefs from the worst effects of depression such as stalled investment and unemployment.
That is to say, even if a recession doesn’t start off as bad as 2008, we are in worse shape than ever to mount any sort of recovery short of eliminating all tax cuts and loopholes from the last 20 years.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 9:43:15 GMT 10
With an absolute madman at the helm who will do anything (and I mean anything) to be re-elected and stay in office, I'm absolutely terrified right now. I'm terrified about both the virus and the economy. I can't say I've ever been more frightened about current events and times like 9/11 and the 2008 crash were scary.
America is going to look very different six months from now and not in a good way. The next 3-5 years are going to be perilous economically, though at the current time we don't know how bad it's going to get. The fact that right-wing America still believes the virus is a big hoax invented by Democrats and the liberal media to hurt Trump's re-election chances is only going to make this worse than it otherwise would be.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 10:41:32 GMT 10
Might be a bit too early to call it "official". Official recessions are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. January/February were decent months, March might not slow down enough to go into negative territory. If life returns to mostly normal by June/July we can avoid a recession.
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Post by Cassie on Mar 15, 2020 11:26:37 GMT 10
Might be a bit too early to call it "official". Official recessions are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. January/February were decent months, March might not slow down enough to go into negative territory. If life returns to mostly normal by June/July we can avoid a recession. I would be surprised if things were mostly normal by June or even July. Even August
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 13:47:30 GMT 10
Might be a bit too early to call it "official". Official recessions are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. January/February were decent months, March might not slow down enough to go into negative territory. If life returns to mostly normal by June/July we can avoid a recession. I would be surprised if things were mostly normal by June or even July. Even August I think even best case we're looking at something like the 2001 recession and it will persist long after the virus is gone. The next 2-3 years look pretty bad for the U.S. economy and that's an optimistic scenario. This could be a decade-long depression with 25% unemployment.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 14:26:42 GMT 10
Might be a bit too early to call it "official". Official recessions are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. January/February were decent months, March might not slow down enough to go into negative territory. If life returns to mostly normal by June/July we can avoid a recession. I would be surprised if things were mostly normal by June or even July. Even August I'm hoping by then testing will be up to speed and there will be no need to shut everything down when you can just isolate whoever is sick.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 18:18:50 GMT 10
I would be surprised if things were mostly normal by June or even July. Even August I'm hoping by then testing will be up to speed and there will be no need to shut everything down when you can just isolate whoever is sick. You need to break the cycle though. Waiting until you find sick people ain't gonna do that. By the time you've isolated them, they've possibly passed on the virus to who knows how many others. Shutting almost everything down allows you to minimise contact between the infected and not infected. And potentially reach zero new cases much quicker. In my city, there has only been one recent case and that was someone returning from overseas. Supermarkets were open and well-stocked (no panic buying), but other businesses were closed. Nowadays, most businesses are open but educational places are still closed.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 18:45:56 GMT 10
![]() www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/11/recession-heres-how-coronavirus-crises-different-2008/5012228002/
A plunging stock market. The widening shadow of recession. Fed interest rate cuts and government stimulus.
It's beginning to feel a lot like 2008 again. And not in a good way.
For many Americans, the stomach-churning market drops and growing recession talk of the past few weeks – triggered by the global spread of the coronavirus – are reviving memories of the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession.
Take a breath. While the toll the infection ultimately takes on the nation isn’t clear, the economic upheaval caused by the outbreak will likely not be nearly as damaging or long-lasting as the historic downturn of 2007-09. I do not think it is going to happen.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2020 2:03:10 GMT 10
I would be surprised if things were mostly normal by June or even July. Even August I think even best case we're looking at something like the 2001 recession and it will persist long after the virus is gone. The next 2-3 years look pretty bad for the U.S. economy and that's an optimistic scenario. This could be a decade-long depression with 25% unemployment. Come on, 25% unemployment is pretty hyperbolic, and this is coming from someone who has been certain of an economic depression since the 2017 tax cut. But yeah, it’s gonna get pretty bad. Probably as bad as 2008, not sure if it’ll get as bad as 1932 though.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2020 10:18:20 GMT 10
I'm hoping by then testing will be up to speed and there will be no need to shut everything down when you can just isolate whoever is sick. You need to break the cycle though. Waiting until you find sick people ain't gonna do that. By the time you've isolated them, they've possibly passed on the virus to who knows how many others. Shutting almost everything down allows you to minimise contact between the infected and not infected. And potentially reach zero new cases much quicker. In my city, there has only been one recent case and that was someone returning from overseas. Supermarkets were open and well-stocked (no panic buying), but other businesses were closed. Nowadays, most businesses are open but educational places are still closed. In South Korea they were able to reduce the number of new cases by testing aggressively, even with asymptomatic people.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2020 12:15:07 GMT 10
You need to break the cycle though. Waiting until you find sick people ain't gonna do that. By the time you've isolated them, they've possibly passed on the virus to who knows how many others. Shutting almost everything down allows you to minimise contact between the infected and not infected. And potentially reach zero new cases much quicker. In my city, there has only been one recent case and that was someone returning from overseas. Supermarkets were open and well-stocked (no panic buying), but other businesses were closed. Nowadays, most businesses are open but educational places are still closed. In South Korea they were able to reduce the number of new cases by testing aggressively, even with asymptomatic people. Whereas in our country - or at least my state - you basically need to be experiencing a severe infection just to get tested. Let me repeat that: you need to have an 100+ F fever and shortness of breath already, just to get tested.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2020 13:14:20 GMT 10
I think even best case we're looking at something like the 2001 recession and it will persist long after the virus is gone. The next 2-3 years look pretty bad for the U.S. economy and that's an optimistic scenario. This could be a decade-long depression with 25% unemployment. Come on, 25% unemployment is pretty hyperbolic, and this is coming from someone who has been certain of an economic depression since the 2017 tax cut. But yeah, it’s gonna get pretty bad. Probably as bad as 2008, not sure if it’ll get as bad as 1932 though. This moment right now was my worst fear when Trump was elected. The only hope for our country was to get through his four years without a major crisis. Anybody with any sense knew that a major crisis with Donald Trump at the helm in the US would be a catastrophe for the history books. Well, here we are. Thing is, this is just getting started and none of us have any idea how this is going to end. The world is going to be very different by the end of this year. I think something comparable to the Great Depression is possible but I don't know if it will get that bad. A lot of it depends on how long the country remains shut down because of this virus. The longer everything remains shut down, the more severe and more long-lasting the recession will be.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2020 13:18:05 GMT 10
You need to break the cycle though. Waiting until you find sick people ain't gonna do that. By the time you've isolated them, they've possibly passed on the virus to who knows how many others. Shutting almost everything down allows you to minimise contact between the infected and not infected. And potentially reach zero new cases much quicker. In my city, there has only been one recent case and that was someone returning from overseas. Supermarkets were open and well-stocked (no panic buying), but other businesses were closed. Nowadays, most businesses are open but educational places are still closed. In South Korea they were able to reduce the number of new cases by testing aggressively, even with asymptomatic people. That's true. I believe they are actively tracing everyone who has had contact with infected persons. That's quite intensive work. And you need a lot of testing kits and testing labs on hand. I guess for some nations, it's too late to do that now. The virus is too widespread. South Korea were smart and had a plan waiting for the first outbreak that they could implement very quickly.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 2:56:48 GMT 10
Come on, 25% unemployment is pretty hyperbolic, and this is coming from someone who has been certain of an economic depression since the 2017 tax cut. But yeah, it’s gonna get pretty bad. Probably as bad as 2008, not sure if it’ll get as bad as 1932 though. This moment right now was my worst fear when Trump was elected. The only hope for our country was to get through his four years without a major crisis. Anybody with any sense knew that a major crisis with Donald Trump at the helm in the US would be a catastrophe for the history books. Well, here we are. Thing is, this is just getting started and none of us have any idea how this is going to end. The world is going to be very different by the end of this year. I think something comparable to the Great Depression is possible but I don't know if it will get that bad. A lot of it depends on how long the country remains shut down because of this virus. The longer everything remains shut down, the more severe and more long-lasting the recession will be. If you want to hear something that'll really throw you into fits, remember that Russian hackers have access to our power grid. Things can get pretty crazy pretty quickly if they want it to.
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